Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 180.987085 219.783737 267.954469 333.298875 421.456563 5.390694e+02 7.129074e+02
2025-03-30 136.048409 180.357654 242.577914 340.116410 496.932197 7.550788e+02 1.252930e+03
2025-04-06 113.053816 159.289671 230.190497 354.238234 584.319219 1.041048e+03 2.192271e+03
2025-04-13 94.500793 138.811909 211.070972 348.044945 631.734582 1.289848e+03 3.420878e+03
2025-04-20 87.102466 133.507914 214.185496 380.966563 772.642616 1.873046e+03 6.939372e+03
2025-04-27 80.562354 127.963426 214.994220 409.250474 922.198501 2.672449e+03 1.498572e+04
2025-05-04 74.505003 121.934000 213.161620 431.011005 1072.149104 3.732615e+03 3.537357e+04
2025-05-11 68.776977 115.402957 208.683215 444.914485 1212.281748 5.077656e+03 9.502021e+04
2025-05-18 63.221250 108.253410 201.304705 448.910788 1325.952005 6.638931e+03 3.041527e+05
2025-05-25 57.695755 100.337222 190.676421 440.625213 1390.716463 8.159605e+03 1.200047e+06
2025-06-01 52.658571 92.736803 179.395120 427.046932 1426.895121 9.687184e+03 8.624182e+06
2025-06-08 48.250018 85.892702 168.726507 412.230115 1449.799452 1.131929e+04 1.211245e+09
2025-06-15 47.346381 86.421820 176.028791 457.917268 1832.392106 2.123215e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 44.575821 82.593990 171.980019 465.248751 2026.397074 3.169498e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 42.656659 80.385923 171.647974 486.051547 2347.382933 5.605363e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 39.778581 75.676381 163.912562 476.540277 2448.432239 7.830847e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 39.234728 76.233005 170.507923 526.702832 3142.365455 2.418245e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 38.385846 75.958806 174.765846 570.318822 3931.504546 1.053703e+06 NaN
2025-07-27 37.257486 74.868352 176.462556 604.185282 4764.086007 9.753497e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 35.891063 73.030871 175.584740 625.960523 5561.924827 4.434054e+09 NaN
2025-08-10 34.288804 70.430141 171.902772 632.238832 6187.000233 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 32.431787 67.005155 165.086736 619.231453 6453.768444 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 30.572916 63.417746 157.262579 597.995890 6517.693972 NaN NaN